FOR USE AS DESIRED
NFL-POST-3     1/13/04

SUPER BOWL’S IN SIGHT AS COLTS TAKE ON PATRIOTS,
PANTHERS FACE EAGLES IN CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

The way it’s going, don’t be surprised if we’re closing in on the first overtime game in Super Bowl history.

Why not?  The 2003 NFL playoffs have been one steaming cauldron of excitement, big plays and close games.  The competition has been so intense, in fact, that three games have gone to overtime – the most ever in a postseason – with one reaching double overtime, only the fifth playoff game in history to do so.

Last week, all four Divisional Playoff games were decided by a touchdown or less for the first time in history.  So far in the playoffs, 75 percent of the games (six of eight) have been decided by seven points or less.  If that percentage holds, it would be the most fiercely contested playoffs ever.     

Now it’s the AFC and NFC Championship Games on Sunday.  Win there, and you’ve got a ticket to Houston, Texas for Super Bowl XXXVIII on February 1.

“At this time of year, every time you win, the next game gets bigger,” says New England Patriots head coach BILL BELICHICK.    

This Sunday’s “bigger” games:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
 

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
 

The Championship foursome is an impressive one indeed:

• They’re good:  They have compiled a .786 (55-15) winning percentage through the Divisional Playoffs.
   
• They’re hot:  All are on hot streaks – New England, 13-0; Philadelphia, 11-1; Indianapolis, 9-3; and Carolina, 7-3, for a combined .851 “streak” percentage (40-7).
   
• They’re tough:  Carolina has played in 13 games this season decided by six points or less (and won 10 of them); Philadelphia (0-2, then nine in a row) and New England (2-2, then 13 in a row) rebounded from slow starts to build two of the three longest winning streaks of the season (Kansas City, nine in a row); Indianapolis is 8-1 on the road this year, the best such mark in the league.
   
• They’re experienced: New England is seeking its second Super Bowl title in the past three years; Philadelphia is in its third consecutive Championship Game; and Indianapolis is in its fourth playoffs in the past five seasons. 

The AFC and NFC Championship Games are both rematches of meetings of November 30 of this season:

• AFC: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (14-4) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (15-2), 3:00 PM ET, CBS:  No punts vs. no (almost) points.

That’s the capsule rundown of these two teams.  The Colts’ offense has been so hot in the playoffs, it has not had to punt.  The Patriots’ defense has been so tough in its last seven home games, it has surrendered an average of less than a touchdown (5.1 points) per game.  Something’s got to give.

Everyone will dissect the last time these two teams met in Week 13 in Indianapolis to see which team’s specialty

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CHAMPIONSHIP GAME FACTOID

PATS CLOSE TO ’72 DOLPHINS:  If the New England Patriots win the AFC Championship Sunday, they will match the 17-0 Miami Dolphins of 1972 as the only teams in history to win 14 games in a row in a single season.

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will show up.  The Patriots were sailing along 31-10 halfway through the third quarter.  Then the Colts scored three unanswered touchdowns in six minutes to tie the game early in the fourth quarter.  A Pats TD gave them their winning points (38-34) – but not before Colts running back EDGERRIN JAMES was stopped four times inside the 10, the final time to be thrown for a loss by linebacker WILLIE MC GINEST.

“I don’t see how it could be any closer than what it was,” says Belichick of that game.  “It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what happens this time.” 

The Colts in the playoffs have been following the TD pace they exhibited on November 30.  They are on an amazing 10-touchdown-in-17-possessions clip, and scored on six of their first seven drives in the Divisionals against Kansas City.  

The director of that offense, of course, is quarterback PEYTON MANNING, the NFL’s 2003 Co-MVP.  Manning is incredibly hot, going 44-for-56 for 681 yards with no interceptions and eight TDs so far in the playoffs.  His 156.9 passer rating is the highest ever in a single postseason’s first two games.

“It’s not trickery,” Manning says of the Colts’ offense.  “We’re not running flea-flickers.  We’re not running reverses.  We’re just running the same plays we’ve run all season.  Hopefully we can keep it up this week.”

Manning’s counterpart, New England’s TOM BRADY, has not put up those types of numbers.  But two stats are most telling about the Super Bowl XXXVI MVP.  He is 4-0 in the postseason, and he has not thrown an interception at home this season. 

The midnight oil will be burning this week.  Turning it high will be Colts offensive coordinator TOM MOORE and his counterpart on defense, ROMEO CRENNEL of the Patriots.  New England allowed an NFL-record-low 68 points at home this year while posting three shutouts.  “We’re at our best at home,” says Patriots linebacker TEDY BRUSCHI.  “But it still comes down to how you play the game on that home field.”

NFC: CAROLINA PANTHERS (13-5) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (13-4), 6:45 PM ET, FOX:  The Steve Smith-Freddie Mitchell Bowl.  Or, in other words, let’s get ready for a wild one! 

No one symbolizes the unpredictability quotient inherent in this matchup more than these two receivers.  When last seen in the Divisional Playoffs, Panthers wide receiver STEVE SMITH raced to paydirt on a 69-yard pass from JAKE DELHOMME to lift Carolina to victory over St. Louis in double-overtime.  The next day, Eagles receiver FREDDIE MITCHELL caught a bullet from DONOVAN MC NABB on a season-on-the-line fourth-and-26 that a minute later led to the game-tying field goal in an overtime win over Green Bay (Philly newspapers are calling it the Eagles’ “Immaculate Reception”).

This game, like Colts-Pats, figures to be a stellar-offense vs. stingy-defense battle.  The Eagles fly on the leadership of quarterback McNabb, who seems able to will his team to victory.  If it takes throwing, he’ll do it (21 of 39 for 248 yards and two touchdowns last week).  If it takes running, he’ll do that, too (an NFL QB playoff rushing record 107 yards last Sunday). 

He will confront a front four led by left and right ends JULIUS PEPPERS and MIKE RUCKER, who combined for 19.0 sacks this year. 

“They’ve been known as the best front four, the best front seven, in the NFL this season,” says McNabb.  “Can we beat them?  I won’t guarantee it, but I’ll guarantee we’ll be prepared to beat them.”

Same goes for the Panthers, who lost to the Eagles 25-16 on November 30 when kicker JOHN KASAY missed three field-goal attempts and a PAT.  They never seem to do things easy, but the “Cardiac Cats” have won four of five overtimes, including last week’s double-OT.  In addition to their 13 games decided by six points or less, nine of them have been decided in the final two minutes or in OT.  On Saturday, they became only the third NFC team in the Divisional Playoffs since 1990 to win on the road.

“We just believe we can get it done in some kind of way,” says Delhomme, who becomes the second (TRENT DILFER, Baltimore, 2000) unrestricted free agent QB to start in a Championship Game in his first year with that team since free agency began in 1993.  “We’ve been in so many close games.  If we’re in that kind of ballgame this week, we truly believe that, in some way, we’ll get it done.”

One of the main keys to the matchup could be the running backs.  The Eagles’ DUCE STALEY (45 yards and one TD catch last week), replacing injured all-purpose RB BRIAN WESTBROOK, will have to repeat his key bursts of last Sunday (22 yards on the Eagles’ first play of their final drive to tie the game; 11 yards in OT to help set up the winning FG).  The Panthers are not sure if STEPHEN DAVIS (who pulled a quadriceps on Saturday) will be available, so backup DE SHAUN FOSTER might have to repeat the likes of his 95-yard effort against St. Louis.                
 

 NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE 2003 PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
(All times Eastern)

WILD CARD WEEKEND
 

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

2003 NFL FINAL STANDINGS